The Week That’s Done: January 15January 15, 2023
Wheat futures drop in their steepest weekly plunge since August, but risks remain – while the EU eyes more sanctions on Russian fuel, China eyes Australia’s lithium, and South Korea’s Q Cells eyes a new project in Georgia. Plus: A surprise rare earths find, US-EU tension, and a whole lot more.
The Week That’s Done: December 18December 18, 2022
New strains hit Europe’s energy systems while the US fights to invest in next generation solutions, and struggles at the upstream. Plus, a breakthrough in nuclear fusion, hope that inflation might be easing (kind of), Japan’s new defense strategy, and more.
The Week That’s Done: November 13November 13, 2022
The EU’s ban on Russian petroleum products is a mere weeks away, winter looms, and the energy crisis is a global affair – with developing economies on the frontlines. Plus, deflation in China, competition in major metal exchanges, and the neon market heats up while palm oil cools.
Want to Fix Inflation? Fix SupplyOctober 20, 2022
An effective response to inflation – and to the more systemic supply demand mismatch that threatens the US economy – requires investment in supply. This is a project for the private sector. But the private sector needs a push from Washington.
The Week That’s Done: October 16October 16, 2022
The international market is increasingly bifurcated and in the West, the dominant theme is shortage: Aluminum crunch, refining crunch, wheat crunch, freight crunch, LNG crunch narrowly avoided – for now. Plus, in markets, inflation persists; debt risks brew among emerging economies; and Germany's trade surplus shrinks.
The Week That’s Done: September 18September 18, 2022
Inflation is up and FedEx is down: US economic indicators have alarm bells ringing – while Latin America faces triple digit inflation and energy crisis pushes Europe to full-on intervention. Plus: Tesla walks the US-China tightrope; coal prices soar while oil production drops, and a decision point nears for metals markets.
The Week That’s Done: August 28August 28, 2022
Moscow toys with global energy markets and LNG prices surge – with second-order consequences for Beijing’s international influence, global food supply, US inflation. Plus: Drought compounds agricultural crisis, the SPR sits at its lowest level since 1985, Japan eyes nuclear, and China launches a new wave of stimulus. And, of course, Powell says tighten your seatbelts.
The Week That’s Done: August 21August 21, 2022
Record temperature shut down China and squeeze Europe - not the heat the global economy needs. Plus the Chinese central bank cuts rates while UK inflation hits 10.1%, copper miners stay optimistic and the IRA gives them reason, and nuclear fears in Ukraine. Happy weekend!
The Week That’s Done: August 14August 14, 2022
The CHIPS Act is a carrot and Manchin's EV sourcing requirements a stick: US industrial competition could be ready for a comeback - if the private sector is on board. Plus: The energy scramble continues while Turkey plays metals middleman; US inflation relaxes, but so does productivity; and China flexes its delisting muscles
With the Supply Crisis Accelerating, Industry Needs to Step Up Not Hunker DownJuly 20, 2022
For decades, bad habits have become entrenched. The country has allowed itself to auction off long-term economic prosperity in exchange for short-term profits. Now, the US must break its habits, not take false shelter in them.
The Week That’s Done: July 17July 17, 2022
Inflation hits a whopping 9.1, but if anything the supply picture is getting worse: Peloton gives up on production, Intel stalls in Ohio, the Texas grid sputters, and Biden strikes out with MBS. Plus: Europe might be headed for shut off, China is gobbling up lithium, and there’s political chaos on the horizon.
The Week That’s Done: July 3July 3, 2022
The good news: It's a long weekend. The bad: California can't figure out supply and demand, US manufacturing is slowing, and the G7's price cap scheme doesn't mean much. Plus: Things look even worse in Europe, copper's drop might just be a blip, will the chemical industry move to China?
Supply-Side Tools for a Supply-Side ProblemJune 20, 2022
An effective response to inflation – and to the more systemic supply demand mismatch that threatens the US economy – requires pairing the Fed’s monetary policy band-aids with investment in supply.
The Week That’s Done: June 19June 20, 2022
Washington brings supply-side tools to a demand-side fight; the EU fares no better. Meanwhile Moscow turns off gas to Europe while Beijing continues to snipe chip tech. Plus: All eyes on Xinjiang, the Yen, and the WTO's pyrrhic victory.
The Week That’s Done: June 12June 12, 2022
Gas prices hit all-time highs as inflation gallops ahead; Washington relaxes solar tariffs while playing softball with Russia's plunder; plus China stocks make (minor) gains, BYD makes bigger gains, and TSX launches a battery metals index
At a Time of Runaway Inflation, Tech Is an Ally Not a FoeJune 11, 2022
It’s time for Washington to start working with, not against, big tech; to start leveraging American industrial scale in order to fight inflation and for the global order.
If Washington Wants to Beat Inflation, It Needs to Lean into Tariffs – Not Relax ThemJune 6, 2022
The answer to inflation is not to ease tariffs. It is to stop with the band-aids. The US should see inflation as the motivation to invest in domestic production; tariffs as the market opportunity to do so.
The Week That’s Done: June 5June 5, 2022
The EU promises that it will block most Russian oil imports maybe – all while production continues to stall and Australia offers worrying indicators of shortage ahead; plus we have European inflation, car companies as space companies, and a pyrrhic victory for the US.
Factors and Markets Briefing: Week of May 23May 29, 2022
With record gas prices, squeezed agricultural producers, and stubborn labor crisis, the era of shortage is here to stay -- and likely worsen. Cue shifting consumer habits, Sri Lanka's default, and a move toward industrial integration (anti-trust be damned). Happy Memorial Day!
Markets Briefing: Week of May 9May 15, 2022
Against a backdrop of staggering inflation, it's general chaos: Crypto crashes, alongside the stock market; dependence on China freezes the US solar industry; the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the USD faces a squeeze; and somehow we're in a perfect storm of inflation, capital market collapse, and great power competition.
Markets Briefing: Week of May 2May 7, 2022
As inflation soars, the Fed tightens the screws – and markets balk; the real economy weathers the storm better than most; both government and private sector double down on EV supply chains.
Tariffs are Not the Reason for Inflation. They’re How to Fix ItMay 7, 2022
The answer to inflation is not to ease tariffs. It is to stop with the band-aids. It is to keep tariffs up, but also to take the proactive measures that they are supposed to encourage: The US should see inflation as a push to invest in domestic production; tariffs as the market opportunity to do so.
We Can Avoid Recession. But We Need to Fix SupplyApril 22, 2022
What if, in addition to immediate, demand-side monetary policy quick fixes, Washington was to set about investing in production of critical inputs, manufacturing facilities, and improved logistics systems? It’s entirely possible, and necessary.
Factors Briefing: Week of April 11April 17, 2022
Amid soaring inflation, the specter of global food shortage; the titanium crunch throws aerospace companies for a loop; Elon Musk weighs tossing his hat into the mining ring
Breaking the Inflation Cycle: A Roadmap for Domestic ResilienceApril 15, 2022
We need a gameplan for domestic resilience so that today's inflation crisis does not continue indefinitely and does not recur. We need to rethink our permissive approach external dependencies; to make sure that we can make more – and more of what is foundational to economic functioning -- at home.