What the Market Hasn’t Realized about Global Soybean Supply
March 20, 2023Argentina is the world’s fourth largest producer of soybeans and largest exporter of soybean products. But historic drought in the country is devastating its production, with serious consequences for global supply. And those consequences are not currently being priced into markets, exacerbating the problem.
The Week That’s Done: China’s industrial strategy
March 19, 2023We give you a blueprint of China's industrial strategy and will a Guinean iron ore mine help China slash dependence on Australian imports? Meanwhile, the EU unveils a critical minerals plan just as China tightens its grips on cobalt and lithium, Black Sea Grain deal uncertainty, and trade controls served two ways.
Deglobalization Round-up: March 18
March 18, 2023Vanguard ditches China, and so do software developers. Plus: A potential TikTok ban, the EU moves to restrict investments in overseas production facilities, and a new paper points to the benefits of reshoring API Production.
This Is the Blueprint for China’s Industrial Strategy
March 17, 2023China's "single champions" and "little giants" programs fuel an industrial ambition that entails not merely acquiring dominant industrial capacity, but also establishing positions of leverage in key global supply chains.
Little Giants, Single Champions: China’s Blueprint for Asymmetric Industrial Advantage
March 16, 2023Chinese government programs to promote “single champions” and “little giants” have been under way since at least 2011. But they have received little international attention. This report seeks to resolve that deficit. The list of “single champions” and “little giants” constitutes a detailed operative blueprint of China’s industrial standing, ambitions, and strategy.
Toward Racial Equity in Industry: How the CHIPS and Science Act Can Fuel Inclusive Investment
March 13, 2023In the first Modern Manufacturer column, the Urban Manufacturing Alliance talked with Michelle Burris, Fellow at The Century Foundation about portions of the CHIPS and Science Act designed to provide support to Historically Black Colleges and Universities.
The Week That’s Done: Japan’s Green Hydrogen Bet
March 12, 2023Japan has recognized the strategic value of friendshoring since well before it became a buzz phrase—and a burgeoning Japan-Australia hydrogen partnership could offer lessons to other countries. Meanwhile, the US shale boom looks to be flagging, a new report raises aluminum alarms, and Europe’s China stance is hardening. Plus: Are we back to supply chain normality yet?
Deglobalization Round-Up: March 11
March 11, 2023Canada moves to review mineral investments, Germany to review telecommunications networks, and the US to review technologies emanating from adversary countries. Plus US companies are rethinking Chinese supply chains, reshoring solar energy production promises to accelerate decarbonization, and Silicon Valley Bank's China tie.
The Week That’s Done: The Smartphone Space Race
March 5, 2023The satellite space race is heating up—and China sees it as the next battlefield in the mobile communications contest. Plus: markets overreact to Tesla’s ex-rare earths announcement, Beijing's lithium crackdown, and Britain’s salad crisis. And banger factory activity in China contrasts with contraction in the US.
Deglobalization Round-Up: March 4
March 4, 2023General Electric invests in the US as Apple's China suppliers seek international bases, the US solar industry tries to wean itself off China, and HSBC admits that its support for Beijing has threatened human rights. Plus, Putin and Biden shore up their respective, conflicting alliances against a backdrop of global trade, Beijing's data control, and new additions to the entity list.
All Hat No CATL: Are State Leaders Wising up to China’s Industrial Threat?
March 2, 2023Ford has announced that it will collaborate with a Chinese State-backed supplier in establishing a battery plant for electric vehicles in Michigan. This despite the fact that an EV battery plant dependent on Chinese technology runs contrary to ambitions to shore up dependence on Chinese players and increase sustainable American industrial capacity.
The US is Vulnerable in Critical Minerals. But There Is a Solution.
February 26, 2023The US is at least 50 percent import dependent for 26 out of the 32 minerals that the 2022 US Geological Survey publishes data on, or 81.25 percent. Of those, China is the top source of US imports for 11, or 42.3 percent. Gallium underscores how severe this dynamic is.
The Week That’s Done: The Rare Earth Conundrum
February 26, 2023Australian rare earth miner Lynas hits roadblocks in Malaysia, just as the red carpet is rolled out for its Chinese competitors. Meanwhile, battery giant CATL wants to lock in business with cut-rate prices—but only to select EV makers. Plus, natural gas prices tumble and a manufacturing slowdown in Japan.
Deglobalization Round-Up: February 25
February 25, 2023The Kyocera president says that China is "no longer viable" as the world's factory, as developments in rare earths and semiconductors underscore the point. Plus, China looks further to shore up dependencies on chips, foreign auditors and the US sets up a "Disruptive Technology Strike Force."
The Week That’s Done: February 19
February 19, 2023Ford and CATL are teaming up to build a EV battery factory in the US, and it's a new lightning rod for the US-China competition. Europe's gas dilemma remains while the US reasserts itself as the global oil price maker. Plus, another week of a mixed bag of economic data, and US fund manager VanEck might be getting cold feet on China.
Deglobalization Round-Up: February 17
February 17, 2023China bets sink Tiger Global and the Singapore sovereign wealth fund balks at Beijing. Plus semiconductor companies moving out of China, Europe's push for solar, and the "critical-minerals club."
The Week That’s Done: February 12
February 12, 2023Fueled by Chinese demand, Brazil is on pace to tie the US as the world's largest corn exporter. Plus: A natural gas trading hub in Turkey could help Russia circumvent sanctions, China's opening threatens new inflationary pressures, and Pakistan wants a bail-out.
Deglobalization Round-Up: February 10
February 10, 2023Redwood Materials receives a 2 billion USD loan to produce battery materials in the US and the EU doubles down on cutting dependence on foreign energy sources. Plus spy balloon fall-out, aluminum detentions, and outbound investment screening.
The Week That’s Done: February 5
February 5, 2023The EU goes head to head with the US on industrial policy, right when cooperation is most necessary. Plus, BP says that fossil fuels are out but US oil production surges and the world can't kick coal, China's pending export restrictions on solar and rare earth technology, and General Motors pushes ahead with investments in vertical integration. Plus: spy balloon.
Deglobalization Round Up: February 2
February 2, 2023Nucor sees reshoring pushing up demand for it steel and US forgers call for continuing tariffs on China. Plus, Sony moves out of China, Europe's wake-up, the US courts India, and concerns over TuSimple.
Can the Modern Agricultural Industry Increase the Carrying Capacity of the Planet?
February 1, 2023Trends point to real risk of global protein shortage. But the good news: There is potential to increase the carrying capacity of the planet. The potential boons of doing so just have to be made clear. Takeaways from the Archer Daniels Midland's earnings call.
The Week That’s Done: January 29
January 29, 2023Copper shortfall and a graphite black swan from China raises questions about future battery supply. Plus, Italy takes steps toward becoming a European energy hub, China's natural gas crunch explained, a multilateral move in chip restrictions on China, and the Maersk-MSC breakup could shake up global shipping.
Deglobalization Round-Up: January 27
January 27, 2023Slumping demand for Chinese goods hits international shipping, Apple moves away from China, and Senate legislation would ban Strategic Petroleum Reserve sales to China. Phoenix Tailings's co-founder, Canada's Minister of Natural Resources, and India's industry minister say they're ready for reshoring.
America’s Military Readiness Depends on Reshoring Rare Earth Metals
January 26, 2023This is the time for the United States to reshore its critical manufacturing. Thanks to American innovation, we have new, cost-effective manufacturing and processing methods that are environmentally sustainable and safe for workers. I am proud to be part of this solution as a co-founder of Phoenix Tailings, a Massachusetts-based mineral processing startup.
The Week That’s Done: January 22
January 22, 2023Is US manufacturing in a recession? China’s re-opening puts new strain on commodity markets, Europe rushes to Russian diesel as the oil product import ban nears, and Bolivia picks China’s CATL to develop its lithium salt flats, while the UK’s Britishvolt battery startup collapses. Plus: Bad news for food production and a China-Indonesia wrinkle.
Deglobalization Round-Up: January 19
January 19, 2023Davos might be the symbol of globalization, but even there, the trend toward deglobalization is clear - and MacroFab, GlobalFoundries, and active managers are benefiting (though investors in ByteDance aren't).
Why Dell Ditching Chinese Chips Is Great, but Not Enough
January 18, 2023For decades, US companies have been swayed by the siren song of cheap production and rapid market growth in China. Dell, which announced at the start of this year that it intends to stop using semiconductors made in China by 2024, could be at the vanguard of reversing this trend. Or it could be putting a band-aid on a bullet hole.
The Week That’s Done: January 15
January 15, 2023Wheat futures drop in their steepest weekly plunge since August, but risks remain – while the EU eyes more sanctions on Russian fuel, China eyes Australia’s lithium, and South Korea’s Q Cells eyes a new project in Georgia. Plus: A surprise rare earths find, US-EU tension, and a whole lot more.
Deglobalization Round-Up: January 13
January 13, 2023Will deglobalization be the defining trend of 2023? Moves by Apple, restrictions on Tesla, retaliation from China, and incentives in South Korea all suggest the answer is a strong yes.
A Four-Step Plan for Re-Industrialization
January 11, 2023The US needs to create the conditions in which companies see the advantage of investing in the United States. This piece outlines four steps to do so; a four-step, feasible, and immediate path toward American re-industrialization.
The Week That’s Done: January 8
January 8, 2023With China moving on from COVID zero, the energy market looks to tighten – even more. Plus, US LNG exports ramp up, offshore wind energy hits headwinds, and manufacturing contracts, globally.
Warning Signs for Global Manufacturing
January 7, 2023The Producer Manufacturing Index is flashing red, globally, showing contraction across the US, China, Japan, Singapore, France, and Germany.
Deglobalization Round-Up: January 7
January 7, 2023Dell, Panasonic, Denso all rethink dependence on China, while The New York Times covers a turn to Mexico, China threatens retaliation for COVID-19 travel restrictions, and Moscow and Beijing join forces on propaganda.
We Can’t Build a Clean Economy Without Investment in Critical Minerals
January 5, 2023Accelerated production of copper, and other critical minerals, is necessary to make clean energy options economically viable. Otherwise, the gap between supply and demand will fuel further price increases on all critical minerals – which will make the energy transition more expensive and less competitive.
The Week That’s Done: January 1
January 1, 2023Happy new year – it’s still the same chaotic world: With COVID-19 ravaging China, testing controversy brews and Paxlovid becomes a luxury good. Plus the US job market holds on tight, Russia retaliates over the oil price cap, Japan snaps up global LNG supply, and plastics prices plummet.
Deglobalization Round-Up: December 30
December 30, 2022Is the automotive industry the canary in the coal mine: Major auto makers turn away from China, Tesla shuts down production in Shanghai, BMW and Volkswagen grapple with soaring COVID-19 cases in China. Plus: Customs and Border Production detains goods made with North Korean labor and tensions between Serbia and Kosovo escalate.
The Week That’s Done: December 25
December 25, 2022Geopolitics goes back to basics: Zimbabwe bans lithium exports, the EU imposes a(n easily evaded) gas price cap, China and India snap up cheap Russian fuels, and the US moves forward on a strategic uranium reserve. Plus Myanmar and Russia coordinate on nuclear energy, the Bank of Japan shocks investors, and the US turns to Africa.
Deglobalization Round-Up: December 23
December 23, 2022Stellantis and Apple scale back from China, the Australian sovereign wealth fund projects continuing deglobalization, and Robert Lighthizer calls for strategic decoupling. Plus China increases oversight over cross-border data transfers.
The Week That’s Done: December 18
December 18, 2022New strains hit Europe’s energy systems while the US fights to invest in next generation solutions, and struggles at the upstream. Plus, a breakthrough in nuclear fusion, hope that inflation might be easing (kind of), Japan’s new defense strategy, and more.
Deglobalization Round-Up: December 16
December 16, 2022Redwood Materials announces a 3.5 billion USD recycling and manufacturing campus in South Carolina, while both McKinsey and Bank of America suggest that deglobalization is here to stay. Plus: China takes the US to court.
The Week That’s Done: December 11
December 11, 2022China pivots on Zero COVID as the G7 price cap on Russian oil exports goes into effect. And that’s just one example of a new move to values-aligned trade blocs. Plus: The upward trajectory of lithium battery and tin prices, Russian coal exports, and Germany’s efforts to diversify away from China.
Deglobalization Round-Up: December 9
December 9, 2022The EU sues China at the WTO as Beijing's effort to weaponize globalization come into sharp relief. Meanwhile, are semiconductors the canary in the coal mine for deglobalization?
The European Commission’s Fiscal Policy Proposal Risks European Crisis
December 9, 2022Now on the European political table is the European Commission's proposal on the rules to govern fiscal policy of member states. Dr. Gustavo Piga argues that this proposal is even worse than its predecessors. It threatens to make an already fragile continent weaker. Italy should issue a resounding veto.
The Week That’s Done: December 4
December 4, 2022Dampening inflation spurs enthusiasm, but where is the attention to contraction in the US manufacturing index? Plus: A roller coaster week for the growing US-EU trade spat, relaxation in China's COVID Zero restrictions, and a nascent EV industry shift to sodium-ion batteries.
Deglobalization Round-Up: December 2
December 2, 2022Australia prepares to tighten regulations on foreign investment in it critical minerals industry and Canada warns of dependence on unreliable trade partners. Plus former Cisco CEO predicts deglobalization in the tech sector - while Apple's China dilemma and MacroFab's profits prove his point.
The Week That’s Done: November 27
November 27, 2022There’s new progress in the ex-China rare earths supply chain, but is it enough? Plus: Energy turmoil as Europe’s bans on Russian oil and diesel loom; strikes threaten US, South Korean, and UK logistics; China’s back in lockdown; Taiwan has an election surprise; and the OECD summarizes things neatly with a gloomy outlook.
US Manufacturing PMI Data for November Shows Continued Contraction
November 25, 2022S&P Global PMI data, released November 23, showed continued contraction in the US manufacturing sector. The preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 from 50.4 in October, well below expectations of 50. This marks a 30-month low.
Deglobalization Round-Up: November 25
November 25, 2022Bill Ackman calls deglobalization a long-term structural tend, The Financial Times investigates it as a necessity for future prosperity, and growing contradiction between the US and Chinese business environments underscore its inevitability. Plus: Violence at Apple's main Chinese iPhone-making plant, continued supply chain disruption, and an opportunity for Mexico.
Geothermal Energy Can Help Reduce Reliance on Imported Fossil Fuels
November 22, 2022America’s dependence on foreign oil is clearly an increasing security and economic issue. The solution cannot simply be domestic fossil fuel production. Greater focus on renewable energy is necessary, but solar and wind energy both face practical challenges. A third alternative is right beneath our feet: Geothermal ground source energy.
The Week That’s Done: November 20
November 20, 2022In the Indonesian new energy industry, the west risks financing China’s profit, and control. Plus, in factors: Enel builds a US solar panel plant; lithium stays hot; and the price cap on Russian oil nears. In markets: LNG prices resist demand, Japan’s economy shrinks, the UK does austerity – while stray missiles threaten to disrupt it all.
Deglobalization Round-Up: November 18
November 18, 2022A Congressional commission calls for revoking China's normal trade status, investors balk on China, friendshoring goes mainstream, and Ford champions a return to in-house production – while MAC Automation Concepts and Code Corporation in the US; Brandauer and In-Comm Training in the UK take action.
The China Nexus: Thirty Years in and around the Chinese Communist Party’s Tyranny
November 17, 2022The challenges facing US industrial dynamism extend are in part a product of the Chinese Communist Party’s market distortions: Rebuilding domestic industry will demand equal protection as well as promotion. This excerpt from Benedict Rogers’s The China Nexus details a new US resolve to protect.
Global Gateway Can Succeed – If It Focuses on Trusted Production
November 15, 2022The best prospect for getting Global Gateway going strong would be to understand that it must be turned into a tool that finances the external dimension of a European industrial policy cognizant of the need to diversify, to cut dependencies vis-à-vis authoritarian countries, and to find new ways of partnering with the Global South towards sustainable development.
The Week That’s Done: November 13
November 13, 2022The EU’s ban on Russian petroleum products is a mere weeks away, winter looms, and the energy crisis is a global affair – with developing economies on the frontlines. Plus, deflation in China, competition in major metal exchanges, and the neon market heats up while palm oil cools.
Deglobalization Round-Up: November 11
November 11, 2022A week in deglobalization: A milestone for US-based foundry Skywater, the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai sees US companies turning away from China, Apple's reality shows why, and Kellog and Aalberts report continuing supply chain challenges.
A US Policy Roadmap for a Reshored Reality
November 9, 2022Reshoring, especially from China, is essential to American resilience. Here, Harry Moser proposes a framework and set of policy measures to level the industrial playing field. These could bring the total reshored US jobs to 5 million, a 40 percent increase in manufacturing, and full American resilience.
The Week That’s Done: November 6
November 6, 2022Beijing completes its space station and we benchmark the US-China space race – while the Fed keeps hiking, Maersk adds to recession fears, the Black Sea grain deal falters, and Canada orders Chinese lithium companies to divest. Plus: an OPEC for battery minerals?
Deglobalization Round-Up: November 4
November 4, 2022A week in deglobalization: Apple adds new production in India, Canada orders Chinese companies to divest, Bright Machines raises $132 million, Maersk warns of continued price pressures on supply chains, and Deloitte sees reshoring picking up steam.
The US and China Are in a Space Race: Who Is Counting Laps?
November 3, 2022As rhetoric around the US-China space race picks up, what does the competitive balance actually look like? The two country’s relative satellite capacity offers one angle in – and one where overall numbers tell only part of the story.
The Week That’s Done: October 30
October 30, 2022US critical mineral capacity remains critically inadequate, China buys up Indonesia’s cobalt, and what are the prospects for made in USA uranium? Plus, US GDP grows, but pain under the surface, tech players crumble, and manufacturing stalls.
Deglobalization Round-Up: October 28
October 28, 2022A week in deglobalization: Japanese companies seek ex-China production, Motion Control Robotics breaks ground in Ohio, Mexican industrial real estate prepares to boom, GE faces supply chain snarls, and Bloomberg opinion calls for friendshoring.
US Manufacturing Stalls in October
October 26, 2022S&P Global PMI data, released October 24, showed a near-stalled US manufacturing sector. The preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 from 52 in September, well below expectations of 51.2. The decline in US manufacturing activity -- driven by inflation, a strengthening dollar, and earlier stockpiling -- is expected to accelerate.
The US Is Vulnerable in Critical Minerals. But There Is a Solution.
October 24, 2022The US is at least 50 percent import dependent for 26 out of the 32 minerals that the 2022 US Geological Survey publishes data on, or 81.25 percent. Of those, China is the top source of US imports for 11, or 42.3 percent. Gallium underscores how severe this dynamic is.
The Week That’s Done: October 23
October 23, 2022Washington announces another SPR release – amid dropping US crude production, tightening Russia-China-Saudi Arabia oil nexus, and a new oil supply shock on the horizon. Plus, false flag in copper prices, Chinese infrastructure, a skittish yen, and food concerns.
Want to Fix Inflation? Fix Supply
October 20, 2022An effective response to inflation – and to the more systemic supply demand mismatch that threatens the US economy – requires investment in supply. This is a project for the private sector. But the private sector needs a push from Washington.
The Week That’s Done: October 16
October 16, 2022The international market is increasingly bifurcated and in the West, the dominant theme is shortage: Aluminum crunch, refining crunch, wheat crunch, freight crunch, LNG crunch narrowly avoided – for now. Plus, in markets, inflation persists; debt risks brew among emerging economies; and Germany's trade surplus shrinks.
Free Exchange with China Is Not Free Trade
October 12, 2022China is not a free market. Free exchange with China is not free trade. This is a straightforward reality. It is also one that goes under-stated in American discourse – and that demands spelling out: The short-sighted insistence that free exchange with China is free trade threatens the basic assumptions, and architecture, of international free trade itself.
The Week That’s Done: October 9
October 9, 2022OPEC explicitly snubs Washington and the West, showing that productive beats consumptive power. Also not brilliant: US monetary tightening is cooling the economy, but in all the wrong places – and that ups recession risks. Plus: Maize malaise in Europe, the Mississippi’s dry spell, a US industrial policy stumble in lithium, and plunging global FX reserves.
Cleveland Deburring and the Critical Manufacturing Step You Didn’t Know About
October 6, 2022Deburring is an age-old step in the manufacturing process, and what we would call “the last step in the manufacturing process:" Cleveland Deburring Machine Company details the critical role of deburring in modern manufacturing, and the imperative of maintaining trusted and tailored systems for it.
The Week That’s Done: October 2
October 2, 2022Poll results show that the US public backs revoking China’s PNTR status and markets should take heed. Plus: Nord Stream sabotage, the LME considers banning Russian metals, Chinese battery and EV firms are snapping up global lithium supply, and the US needs to step up gas production.
The American Public Thinks It’s Time to End China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations Status
September 29, 2022A July 2022 poll sponsored by Force Distance Times found that the plurality of likely voters favor ending China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status (Most Favored Nation status), and 2-1 support among Republicans – all at the height of inflation. American public will backs this strategic opportunity in US-China competition.
The Week That’s Done: September 25
September 25, 2022Beijing plays both sides of today’s energy war, while expanding its influence over tomorrow’s markets. Meanwhile, European industry falters and the UK falters, generally; the Fed ups the ante but Beijing and Tokyo continue to sit this round out; and is copper the bargain of the moment?
US Manufacturing Is at a Tipping Point: It’s Time To Realize Making Matters
September 23, 2022Before US manufacturing crosses the Rubicon, the country needs a broad-based consensus that manufacturing matters; with it the foundation for a national manufacturing strategy that both government and the private sector buy into.
The Week That’s Done: September 18
September 18, 2022Inflation is up and FedEx is down: US economic indicators have alarm bells ringing – while Latin America faces triple digit inflation and energy crisis pushes Europe to full-on intervention. Plus: Tesla walks the US-China tightrope; coal prices soar while oil production drops, and a decision point nears for metals markets.
Hard Problems: The US Tech Sector Is Ignoring the China Threat
September 16, 2022It is time for the US tech sector to recognize the near and present national security threat China poses; to get on the right side of history. For the US to prevail against a centralized, Communist system, its tech sector will have to lead, proactively. Markets will reward this. The country needs it.
The Week That’s Done: September 11
September 11, 2022A deep dive into Europe’s energy crisis shows faltering industry and political fault-lines, no end in sight for Moscow’s economic warfare, and Beijing as the real winner – plus Europe intent on doubling down on its own mistakes. In markets, a weak currency could strengthen China’s hand, elsewhere it’s hikes hikes hikes, and will India join a major global bond index?
Grey Duck Outdoor: A Small Business Playbook for Domestic Production
September 5, 2022As the owner of Grey Duck Outdoor, I am one year into trying on-shoring. I’m therefore one year into recognizing both how difficult this process can be, and how much potential it offers. And I’m evidence that it is possible to rethink supply chains – especially with the support of US equity holders and consumers.
The Week That’s Done: September 4
September 4, 2022Water crisis in Jackson hammers home the national infrastructure plight. Plus: The yen continues to slide and global bonds enter bear market territory; Pakistan and Sri Lanka secure IMF loans while Russia wreaks energy market havoc (price cap be damned); new battery plants and chip export restrictions in the US suggest industrial policy at work – but is it working?
Heavy Metal: The Hard Days and Nights of the Shipyard Workers Who Build America’s Supercarriers
September 1, 2022Unprecedented stressors have created the conditions for new investment in domestic industry and new models for public-private industrial coordination to support it. This excerpt from Michael Fabey’s 2022 Heavy Metal documents one such example, a case of operational success at a time of enormous pain and uncertainty.
The Week That’s Done: August 28
August 28, 2022Moscow toys with global energy markets and LNG prices surge – with second-order consequences for Beijing’s international influence, global food supply, US inflation. Plus: Drought compounds agricultural crisis, the SPR sits at its lowest level since 1985, Japan eyes nuclear, and China launches a new wave of stimulus. And, of course, Powell says tighten your seatbelts.
The Lesson of Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit: Win The Production Battle, Win the War
August 23, 2022Positioning for the industrial competition at hand will require the US national security community to recognize that today's geopolitical contest may not be fought with missiles. Except, that is, as it applies to where those missiles are made. This is a war to be won on the factory floor. And it started long before Pelosi’s Taiwan visit.
The Week That’s Done: August 21
August 21, 2022Record temperature shut down China and squeeze Europe - not the heat the global economy needs. Plus the Chinese central bank cuts rates while UK inflation hits 10.1%, copper miners stay optimistic and the IRA gives them reason, and nuclear fears in Ukraine. Happy weekend!
An Economic Policy to Save Italy, and Europe
August 18, 2022How to craft an economic policy capable of saving Italy, and with it Europe? We have a few alternatives, summarized by the so-called "austerity trilemma" that affects the euro-area: You cannot have austerity (the loss of the possibility of using fiscal policy with increased public demand to counter adverse shocks and help the weakest), democracy, and a common euro currency simultaneously. We have to choose two of the three.
The Week That’s Done: August 14
August 14, 2022The CHIPS Act is a carrot and Manchin's EV sourcing requirements a stick: US industrial competition could be ready for a comeback - if the private sector is on board. Plus: The energy scramble continues while Turkey plays metals middleman; US inflation relaxes, but so does productivity; and China flexes its delisting muscles
The Week That’s Done: August 7
August 7, 2022Across wheat, gas, steel, the shortage crisis has calmed - but (largely) because of dropping demand, not rising supply. With manufacturing slumping, future food production threatened, buffer eroded, what happens next? Plus: Storm clouds gather in the UK and China throws a temper tantrum.
Security-Centric and Climate-Inclusive: Energy Policy for an Era of Great Power Politics
August 7, 2022The world is witnessing the first great power military challenge to the US-led liberal international order—an order that Russia and China have long sought to discredit and dismantle. This moment be seized upon to reorient Western thinking from its climate-centric mindset to one that’s security-centric and climate-inclusive
The True Cost of China Exposure and What To Do About It
August 6, 2022US industry is seeing the accumulated debts of decades of offshoring – and decades of offshoring to geopolitical adversaries – reach maturity. It’s time to adopt a new model. Instead of optimizing for the lowest costs, the US needs to start optimizing for resilience
The Week That’s Done: July 31
July 31, 2022Rare movement in DC offers a glimmer of hope for industrial investment – or at least a signal to the private sector. The bad news: This challenge is above government's pay grade; recession (word choice be damned) looms, and not just in the US; everywhere from energy to grain to space, Russia is adeptly playing spoiler. Plus: scandium, tritium, fixed-price forward contracts, and more.
The UK’s New Critical Minerals Strategy Represents a Comeback for Industrial Policy
July 28, 2022The UK government is now demonstrating that it is ready to move, and in lockstep with allies, in setting out the steps to maximize what the UK produces across the value chain and to reduce strategic dependence on China.
A Secure Industrial Strategy Starts at the Upstream
July 26, 2022In everything from batteries to solar panels, the energy sources of tomorrow depend on inputs from China. The good news is that it it's not too late. The US, its allies, and its partners can still compete. But they will have to start with the upstream.
The Week That’s Done: July 24
July 24, 2022The EU's twin energy and economic crises threaten the bloc's cohesion, also political losses on those struggling to hold it together. Plus: Inflationary pressures mean no tariffs on Russian fertilizer, dumping be damned; the EV revolution strengthens China's auto hand; monkeypox is a global health emergency; and more fun fun fun.
With the Supply Crisis Accelerating, Industry Needs to Step Up Not Hunker Down
July 20, 2022For decades, bad habits have become entrenched. The country has allowed itself to auction off long-term economic prosperity in exchange for short-term profits. Now, the US must break its habits, not take false shelter in them.
The Week That’s Done: July 17
July 17, 2022Inflation hits a whopping 9.1, but if anything the supply picture is getting worse: Peloton gives up on production, Intel stalls in Ohio, the Texas grid sputters, and Biden strikes out with MBS. Plus: Europe might be headed for shut off, China is gobbling up lithium, and there’s political chaos on the horizon.
Strategic Capitalism: The New Economic Strategy for Winning the Capitalist Cold War
July 11, 2022China’s ability to manage its economy and undermine the American capitalist model is still strong. This excerpt from Richard D'Aveni's prescient "Strategic Capitalism: The New Economic Strategy for Winning the Capitalist Cold War" outlines what to do to improve the American model.
China’s COVID Antiviral Pill Shows That the US Is Running the Wrong Race
July 10, 2022If the US is to have any hope of a productive economic future – and if the US is to compete effectively with China – it needs to shift from a focus on R&D to a focus on application and industrialization.
The Week That’s Done: July 10
July 10, 2022From disruption in personality politics to cascading social (and economic) disruption, this week has it all. Plus, natural gas soars even if oil shows relief; China doubles down on lithium; dollar-euro parity nears; and the US continues to waffle on tariffs.
Fireworks, the Fourth, and an Industrial Future
July 4, 2022It’s the Fourth of July, a day to celebrate the United States of America. The US was able to secure that independence, against all odds, in large part because it was able to support itself militarily and economically; because during the Revolutionary War, Washington and Congress doubled down on developing American manufacturing.
The Week That’s Done: July 3
July 3, 2022The good news: It's a long weekend. The bad: California can't figure out supply and demand, US manufacturing is slowing, and the G7's price cap scheme doesn't mean much. Plus: Things look even worse in Europe, copper's drop might just be a blip, will the chemical industry move to China?
Getting in the Semiconductor Fight
July 2, 2022A global semiconductor strategy, if it could be established, might set the template for how the techno-democracies can compete in today’s industrial era. Emerging industries cannot be pursued by a go-it-alone America. But nor can any be developed without guardrails and a competitive orientation. Welcome to the new globalization.
The Week That’s Done: June 26
June 26, 2022With the energy crisis here to stay, the White House is throwing Econ 100 to the winds; Europe on a quest for new supply; and China sitting pretty atop cheap Russian imports that promise new energy influence, and leverage over the West. Meanwhile we round out the week with economic collapse in Sri Lanka, a COVID pill in China, and a looming critical mineral shortage.
Fixing the Solution Deficit
June 23, 2022Force Distance Times is dedicated to re-inserting solutions into the conversation. That starts at productive capacity. It ends with a future that works.
We Can’t Build a Clean Economy without Investment in Critical Minerals
June 23, 2022Accelerated production of copper, and other critical minerals, is necessary to make clean energy options economically viable. Otherwise, the gap between supply and demand will fuel further price increases on all critical minerals – which will make the energy transition more expensive and less competitive.
Supply-Side Tools for a Supply-Side Problem
June 20, 2022An effective response to inflation – and to the more systemic supply demand mismatch that threatens the US economy – requires pairing the Fed’s monetary policy band-aids with investment in supply.
The Week That’s Done: June 19
June 20, 2022Washington brings supply-side tools to a demand-side fight; the EU fares no better. Meanwhile Moscow turns off gas to Europe while Beijing continues to snipe chip tech. Plus: All eyes on Xinjiang, the Yen, and the WTO's pyrrhic victory.
The Week That’s Done: June 12
June 12, 2022Gas prices hit all-time highs as inflation gallops ahead; Washington relaxes solar tariffs while playing softball with Russia's plunder; plus China stocks make (minor) gains, BYD makes bigger gains, and TSX launches a battery metals index
At a Time of Runaway Inflation, Tech Is an Ally Not a Foe
June 11, 2022It’s time for Washington to start working with, not against, big tech; to start leveraging American industrial scale in order to fight inflation and for the global order.
If Washington Wants to Beat Inflation, It Needs to Lean into Tariffs – Not Relax Them
June 6, 2022The answer to inflation is not to ease tariffs. It is to stop with the band-aids. The US should see inflation as the motivation to invest in domestic production; tariffs as the market opportunity to do so.
The Week That’s Done: June 5
June 5, 2022The EU promises that it will block most Russian oil imports maybe – all while production continues to stall and Australia offers worrying indicators of shortage ahead; plus we have European inflation, car companies as space companies, and a pyrrhic victory for the US.
The Era of One Grand Bargain Is Over: Today’s Competition Demands Thousands of Bargains
May 29, 2022The United States needs to reclaim control over international industry. Doing so requires working with its allies and partners. But the United States will have to do so from the ground up, through countless compromises, and skirmishes, with the private sector. This is not an efficient method. But it is the only way to be effective.
Factors and Markets Briefing: Week of May 23
May 29, 2022With record gas prices, squeezed agricultural producers, and stubborn labor crisis, the era of shortage is here to stay -- and likely worsen. Cue shifting consumer habits, Sri Lanka's default, and a move toward industrial integration (anti-trust be damned). Happy Memorial Day!
Make the Right Choice for the US-China Tech Competition
May 26, 2022US industry – powered by scale and global reach – fueled the country’s rise. The US needs that industrial strength now. But today, it will come from tech not from steel. And it will only come if that tech operates on big platforms.
How Washington Can Resolve the Energy Crisis — for Today, and Tomorrow
May 23, 2022If Secretary Granholm wants more energy production, she should orient her relationship to industry around reshaping incentives to align tomorrow’s demand with today’s supply. She should make clear that incentives for increased production will continue next month, and the months after.
Markets Briefing: Week of May 16
May 22, 2022US stocks hit their longest losing streak since the Great Depression – while continuing lockdowns in China, energy dilemmas in Europe, and a continuing failure to invest in domestic production suggest that a reversal of fortune is not on the horizon
Factors Briefing: Week of May 16
May 21, 2022In a new era of shortage, adjustments are being made: Food nationalism rears its head in India, while in critical minerals automakers look to platinum over palladium; meanwhile, the US fails to incentivize greater oil and gas production while China scoops up Russia's at bargain basement prices
The Baby Formula Shortage Could Have Been Avoided. Let’s Make Sure the Next One Is
May 17, 2022The baby formula shortages shows the US entering an era of industrial dislocation, and competition, not seen in decades. The way for America to win in an era of shortage and a competition for supply chains is to recognize the hot spots – and then open the floodgates for industry to do its thing.
Markets Briefing: Week of May 9
May 15, 2022Against a backdrop of staggering inflation, it's general chaos: Crypto crashes, alongside the stock market; dependence on China freezes the US solar industry; the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the USD faces a squeeze; and somehow we're in a perfect storm of inflation, capital market collapse, and great power competition.
Factors Briefing: Week of May 9
May 14, 2022It's shortage everywhere: In agriculture, wheat is the latest victim, threatening tomorrow's food supply while a baby formula shortage wreaks havoc today; meanwhile, China eyes the aluminum vacuum and a South Korea x Canada collab tries to shore up tungsten dependencies.
In the Global Semiconductor Race, the US Should Remember to Tie Its Shoes
May 9, 2022Washington needs to invest not only in next-generation technological advance, but also into semiconductor production itself, and the materials necessary for it. Such investments are critical for a robust industrial base. They would also be diplomatically advantageous.
Factors Briefing: Week of May 2
May 8, 2022India and China double down on coal as the global energy squeeze intensifies – and while Russian alumina supply dwindles; European automakers seek European rare earths supply, and kind of succeed; Malaysia makes moves to fill the cooking oil vacuum
Markets Briefing: Week of May 2
May 7, 2022As inflation soars, the Fed tightens the screws – and markets balk; the real economy weathers the storm better than most; both government and private sector double down on EV supply chains.
Tariffs are Not the Reason for Inflation. They’re How to Fix It
May 7, 2022The answer to inflation is not to ease tariffs. It is to stop with the band-aids. It is to keep tariffs up, but also to take the proactive measures that they are supposed to encourage: The US should see inflation as a push to invest in domestic production; tariffs as the market opportunity to do so.
Factors Briefing: Week of April 25
May 2, 2022With the Ukraine war disrupting global cooking oil supply, Indonesia decides to up the stakes; new challenges to Russia's lithium supply provide a cautionary tale for the West (or should); and Chinese conglomerates prepare to gobble up Shell's stake in a Russian LNG project
The Lend-Lease We Need: Making the War Machine Work for the American Worker
May 1, 2022Assistance to Ukraine could be the catalyst that the US needs to start effectively investing in domestic production; to start rebuilding the arsenal of democracy, right when the world needs it most.
Markets Briefing: Week of April 25
April 30, 2022Ping'an advises HSBC to split into an east and west operation -- which sounds like decoupling but could be the opposite; commodities markets wrestle with a liquidity squeeze; the EU steps up (kind of) for Lithuania amid trade dispute with China, and China continues to find loopholes in US trade regulations
The Economy Is Shrinking. That’s Not a Good Thing.
April 29, 2022The optimistic take is first, that Washington sits at the perfect inflection point to adjust economic policies that contributed to this imbalance – and, second, that early indications suggest the private sector may already be taking the lead, whether Washington adjusts or not.
Factors Briefing: Week of April 18
April 24, 2022Indonesia works to climb the nickel value chain while Mexico nationalizes its lithium reserves; fertilizer shortage injects new, cross-cutting threats into the global food market; and nuclear energy comes back into favor -- but how to source the uranium?
Want an Energy Revolution? Try Investing in It
April 24, 2022The green economy constitutes a multi-trillion dollar market opportunity. It’s also an opportunity for geo-economic power: With appropriate and sufficient investments, a country can maneuver to control tomorrow’s supply chains and manufacturing capacity, and therefore to project influence internationally.
Markets Briefing: Week of April 18
April 23, 2022With recession alarms blaring, supply-side solutions remain elusive; the world writes off streaming even as Netflix's revenue grows; Chinese companies target European listings; and the Dutch bet big on photonics while the US-South Korea battery alliance hits rocky waters.
We Can Avoid Recession. But We Need to Fix Supply
April 22, 2022What if, in addition to immediate, demand-side monetary policy quick fixes, Washington was to set about investing in production of critical inputs, manufacturing facilities, and improved logistics systems? It’s entirely possible, and necessary.
Factors Briefing: Week of April 11
April 17, 2022Amid soaring inflation, the specter of global food shortage; the titanium crunch throws aerospace companies for a loop; Elon Musk weighs tossing his hat into the mining ring
Global Food Shortage Looms: The US Needs to Step Up
April 17, 2022The US needs to start thinking about food as a strategic resource, investing in and protecting supply accordingly, and doing so in a way updated for the realities of modern agriculture. That is what defending today's global order demands.
Markets Briefing: Week of April 11
April 16, 2022China's CNOOC grows wary of the US, but not of a global footprint; GM and Glencore announce a flashy new supply partnership; and Beijing signals that there's more intervention in capital markets ahead.
Breaking the Inflation Cycle: A Roadmap for Domestic Resilience
April 15, 2022We need a gameplan for domestic resilience so that today's inflation crisis does not continue indefinitely and does not recur. We need to rethink our permissive approach external dependencies; to make sure that we can make more – and more of what is foundational to economic functioning -- at home.
The Amazon Playbook for Long Term Competitiveness
April 11, 2022In its board rooms and on the ground, Amazon is deliberately adopting frameworks and investments designed to foster long-term competitiveness, even what that comes at the expense of quarterly returns or shareholder enthusiasm.
Factors Briefing: Week of April 4
April 9, 2022The global helium shortage puts chaos on the forecast -- and so does the EU's ban on Russian coal; China regains control of a major cobalt mine in the DRC
China’s COVID-19 Lockdown Should Bring Production Back to America
April 8, 2022China’s COVID-19 debacle could be precisely the impetus the US needs to get serious about rebuilding supply chains. These should provide markets a prod to start pricing in the real costs of offshoring – and Washington justification for dedicated, emergency investments in domestic industry.
Markets Briefing: Week of April 4
April 8, 2022Canada wakes up -- kind of, and slowly -- to the risks of foreign investment in strategic areas; elsewhere, it's EVs, EVs, and EVs, but without commensurate attention to the upstream
How Huawei Should Push the US to Reframe Commercial Success
April 3, 2022Huawei's annual report should be the push we need to start measuring success in terms of either competitive production or control over production – and to start investing in those.
Markets Briefing: Week of March 28
April 2, 2022The EU makes a long-shot bid for gas market leverage; the Commerce Department wises up to China's solar tariff circumvention; and China's Securities Regulatory Commission looks to cozy up to the SEC
Factors Briefing: Week of March 28
April 1, 2022The Biden Administration's SPR release fails to address supply gaps -- but invocation of the Defense Production Act for critical minerals maybe does; Canada's abundant resource supply pushes it to the big stage in a new geopolitical environment
It’s Not Too Late for Washington to Learn Supply and Demand
April 1, 2022Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown that the US cannot afford to depend on geopolitical adversaries for critical factors. Instead, the US should be investing in domestic production that can not only prop up national resilience, but also that of allies and partners.
Your March 25 Briefing
March 25, 2022Moscow teases decoupling, the London Metal Exchange braces for defaults, and the US faces an LNG squeeze.
Your March 18 Briefing
March 18, 2022Markets sour on China -- but don't really; the world trudges toward global food shortage; Europe's rare earths efforts risk finding themselves back on square one.
Welcome to Force Distance Times
March 1, 2022Welcome to Force Distance Times. We’re a solutions-focused magazine dedicated to industrial dynamism.
Don’t Forget the Build in Build Back Better
January 12, 2022American national defense faces a very different threat than it did in when the Defense Production Act was implemented in 1950. But mobilization of domestic production may be even more critical to today’s challenge – and to the future of the United States – than it was seven decades ago.
